China's Passenger Car Exports to Reach 5.36 Million Units, CITIC Securities Predicts

China is expected to export a total of 5.36 Million passenger cars in 2024, according to a report issued by CITIC Securities. That is 10 percentage points more than last year’s China car exports.

In 2023, China achieved a milestone of having exported 4.91 million cars, surpassing Japan for the first time to become the world's largest automobile exporter, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said at the beginning of 2024.

According to the 2024 H1 export data, released by the General Administration of Customs China, we see a continuous growth trend on China’s car export performance. China's passenger car achieved exports of 2.51 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%.

On August 16th, CITIC Securities released a research report, optimistic about the second half of China’s automobile industry, predicting that the export volume of China’s automobiles in the second half of 2024 will be significantly boosted.

The report shows that China’s automobile exports in the first half of 2024 have the following three key trends:

Dominant Export Destinations

In H1 2024, the top three regions for China’s passenger car exports were the Middle East, Russia, and the European Union, with exports of 420,000 units, 419,000, and 321,000 units, respectively. Among them, the Middle East achieved a year-on-year increase of 46.2%, while the European Union, affected by anti-subsidy investigations, saw a year-on-year decrease of -11.6%, with exports under pressure.

Energy Structure Adjustments

China's car exports to Brazil faced a fluctuations jump 81% m/m in June, due to the phase-out of new energy tariff preferences in Brazil in July. However, it was temporary, and is expected to improve later, according to the report. On the European Union side, against the backdrop of rising tariffs, in the short term, it will continue to destock, and the growth of export volume is limited.

Competitive FOB Pricing in Key Markets

The average offshore price is between 100,000 and 150,000 yuan, according the data from the General Administration of Customs China. Notably, the average price of the new energy vehicles is systematically higher than that of fuel vehicles, with NEVs at 150,000 yuan, and fuel vehicles at 96,000 yuan.

Below are the average offshore prices for each region:

For EU: 163,000 yuan

For South American countries: 121,000 yuan

For Middle East: 101,000 yuan

For Southeast Asia: 74,000 yuan

China Leads the Global Automobile Export Market in 2024 so far

Recently, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released the automobile export data for July 2024. The data show that from January to July, the export volume of automobiles was 3.262 million units, gaining a year-on-year increase of 28.8%. Looking at the vehicle types, passenger car exports were 2.738 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.1%; commercial vehicle exports were 520,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.6%.